Abstract: Winter peaks in Belgian electricity demand are significantly higher than the summer peaks, creating a greater potential for imbalances between demand and supply. This potential is exacerbated because of the risk of outages in its ageing nuclear power plants, which are being phased out in the medium term. This paper conducts a choice experiment to investigate the acceptability of a load control-based demand response program in the winter months. It surveys 186 respondents on their willingness to accept limits on the use of home appliances in return for a compensation. Results indicate that respondents are most affected by the days of the week that their appliance usage would be curtailed, and by the compensation they would receive. The willingness to enroll in a program increases with age, environmental consciousness, home ownership, and lower privacy concerns. The analysis predicts that 95% of the sample surveyed could enroll in a daily load control program for a compen- sation of €41 per household per year. Thus while an initial rollout among older and more pro-environment homeowners could be successful, a wider implementation would require an explanation of its environmental and financial benefits to the population, and a greater consideration of their data privacy concerns.

Abstract: The data generated in buildings are used for all types of purposes. The quality of information used in assisting people to escape an emergency situation is of importance. In practice today, none of the data-generating systems that aid in the escape from emergency situations is validated on a regular basis. This study is based on the smart building concept. The rationale behind this concept is to provide information about a building and the usage of that building at each moment in time. An experiment was conducted to measure the impact of different types of information on participants' choice of exit, exit time and distance travelled. Seven identical floors of one building were used with different setups to see if the choice of exit is influenced by the type of information provided at the moment of an alarm. It was found that the information does have a significant impact on the choice of exit, escape speed and distance travelled. Furthermore, it was shown that false information can increase the time it takes to leave the building and the distance travelled, impacting the survival rate. The more imperative information is visualised, the stronger its influence is on the choices made.

Abstract: Current cross-sectional methodologies measuring climate change impacts assume that regions at the same latitude face a similar climate response and therefore have the same adaptive capacity. This paper proves that assumption to be erroneous in the European Union. It does so by ameliorating the Ricardian methodology by restricting which farmers (and therefore which adaptation options) are allowed in the dataset. In doing so, a comparative Ricardian methodology is suggested that makes it possible to examine, for the first time, how the climate responsiveness of a region changes if adaptive capacity changes. The paper combines climate, soil, geographic, socio-economic, and farm-level data in a linear mixed-effect model and examines whether Eastern and Western Europe have the same climate responses and how these responses change if regional adaptive capacity increases. The paper concludes that both regions currently have a significantly different climate response, but that if Eastern Europe were to implement the same adaptation options as Western Europe, it could avoid a large decrease in land value and even benefit from climate change depending on the climate scenario.

Abstract: A new lignin-first biorefinery with a reductive catalytic fractionation process, which targets the valorization of the lignin and the carbohydrate fraction into higher value end-products, is currently being designed. To identify the various R&D drivers for projects with a low technology readiness level (TRL), we developed an integrated techno-economic assessment (TEA) that directly integrates the results of lab studies with economic costs and benefits. Furthermore, different linkages are made to upstream wood availability and downstream demand to understand its fit into existing wood value chains. By making the relations across the wood value chain explicit within the integrated TEA, we find that the scale of the plant, the feedstock-specific output quantities, and output prices highly determine the economic feasibility. Furthermore, this detailed analysis reveals the importance of assessing different types of feedstock. If only virgin wood is available as feedstock, minimum capacity levels between 190 and 234 kilotons per year are needed for the investment to be profitable. Waste wood proves to be the most profitable feedstock with an NPV of M€ 59 and an IRR of 26%. Using only waste wood as feedstock makes the investment profitable at a lower capacity level of 80 kilotons per year and economic shocks can be absorbed. Based on these results we show that an integrated and detailed TEA is indispensable to define future development paths for early-stage, innovative technologies.

Abstract: In recent decades new recycling technologies for mixed plastic waste have emerged. In pyrolysis, the polymer chains are thermally broken (pyrolyzed) to obtain hydrocarbon materials of different molecular weights such as naphtha, oil or waxes, whose yields can be controlled by varying the reaction parameters. Naphtha represents a closed-loop recycling process as it is a feedstock for (poly)olefins; while the co-production of waxes, having several applications in e.g. the construction industry, exemplifies an open-loop recycling process. This paper compares the economic performance of the pyrolysis of mixed polyolefin waste in a closed-loop and open-loop scheme, including a probabilistic approach to the most important variables. From an economic perspective, open-loop pyrolysis as presented outperforms closed-loop recycling, due to the high prices of wax. However, the results present a high dispersion caused by the volatility of the prices of crude oil and its derivates. Considering the current oil price projections, our case study analysis showed that for open-loop recycling there is a future probability of almost a 98 % of observing positive results and around 57 % of probability in the case of closed-loop recycling, under the assumptions made. Yet, in a future scenario where decarbonized electricity would decrease oil prices, the probability of a positive outcome reduces to 57 % for the open-loop case and to less than 8 % in the case of closed-loop recycling. To make these pathways attractive to investors, the nameplate capacity should be at least 70 kt/year for open-loop recycling and 115 kt/year for closed-loop recycling. A 120 kt/year plant should operate minimally at 80 % of its capacity for open-loop recycling, while closed-loop recycling would demand running close to maximum capacity. Security of feedstock supply therefore is required.

Abstract: Economic and environmental impact assessments are increasingly being adopted in the design and implementation of emerging systems. However, their emerging nature leads to several assessment challenges that need to be addressed to ensure the validity and usefulness of results in understanding their potential performance and supporting their development. There is the need to (i) account for spatial and temporal variability to allow a broader perspective at an early stage of development; (ii) handle uncertainties to systematically identify the critical factors and their interrelations that drive the results; (iii) integrate environmental and economic results to support sound decision-making based on two sustainability aspects. To address these assessment challenges, this study presents an alternative approach with the following corresponding features: (i) multiple scenario development to conduct an exploratory assessment of the systems under varying conditions and settings, (ii) global sensitivity analysis to identify the main critical factors and their interrelations, and (iii) trade-off and ecoefficiency analysis to integrate the economic and environmental results. The integrated approach is applied to a case study on plasma gasification for solid waste management. The results of the study highlight how the approach allows the identification of the dynamic relations between project settings and surrounding conditions. For example, the choice of gasifying agent largely depends on the background energy system, which dictates the impacts of the process energy requirement and the savings from the substituted energy of the syngas output. Based on these findings, the usefulness and validity of the proposed integrated approach are discussed in terms of how the key assessment challenges are addressed and how it can provide guidance for the development of emerging systems.

Abstract: Aside from potential environmental benefits, the implementation of circular economy principles in businesses can have merits for the labour market. The current unemployment in several regions of Europe and the qualitative mismatch between supply and demand could be countered by reskilling the labour force to adjust supply and demand to one another for increased reuse, repair, or recycling, among others. This study uses interviews to increase the focus of the research question and uses survey data to perform an ordered probit regression analysis to sketch the current and future landscape of startups’ skills in Flanders (Belgium), and to analyse the relationship between circular strategies and different types of skills. The results show that design to lower material use increases the need for transport and logistics skills, digitalisation increases the need for R&D and IT skills, and the recuperation of waste requires technical knowledge. Furthermore, gender, age, and experience of the entrepreneur influence the needed skills. The paper probed for policy recommendations for the uptake of circular strategies and recommendations for future research. The most asked policy measures by the respondents are innovation and collaboration support (subsidies), fiscal measures that support circular goods and services, and public procurement for circular goods and services. This research is of relevance for several stakeholders, such as startup ecosystems, sector organisations, policy makers in innovation policy and labour market policy, and educational institutions.

Abstract: As a response to increasing urbanization and changing weather and climatic patterns, urban green infrastructure (UGI) emerged as a concept to increase resilience within the urban boundaries. Given that implementing these (semi-) natural solutions in practice requires a clear overview of the costs and benefits, valuation becomes ever important. A range of decision-support tools for green infrastructure and ecosystem services exist, developed for various purposes. This paper reviews the potential of 10 shortlisted and existing valuation tools to support investment decisions of urban green infrastructure. In the assessment, the functionality is regarded specifically from the urban planning and decision-making viewpoint. The toolkits were evaluated on 12 different criteria. After analyzing the toolkits on these criteria, the findings are evaluated on the (mis)match with specific requirements in the urban planning and management context. Secondly, recommendations and guidelines are formulated to support the design of simple valuation tools, tailored to support the development of green infrastructure in urban areas. Approaching the valuation toolkits biophysically and (socio-)economically provides an integral overview of the challenges and opportunities of the capacities of each framework. It was found that most tools are not designed for the peculiarities of the urban context. Several elements contribute to the hampering uptake of GI valuation tools. Firstly, the limited effort in the economic case for green infrastructure remains a burden to use toolkits to compare grey and green alternatives. Secondly, tools are currently seldom designed for the peculiarities of cities: urban ecosystem (dis)services, multi-scalability, life-span assessments of co-benefits and the importance of social benefits. Thirdly, toolkits should be the result of co-development between the scientific community and local authorities in order to create toolkits that are tailor made to the specific needs in the urban planning process. It can be concluded that current tools, are not readily applicable to support decision making as such. However, if applied cautiously, they can have an indicative role to pinpoint further targeted and in-depth analyses.

Abstract: Buildings are responsible for 40% of our worldwide energy consumption and 50% of this energy is converted for Heating Ventilation Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems in buildings. The increasing share of renewable energy production required to make the transition towards a carbon neutral energy system challenges the stability of the grid. Through demand response it becomes possible to activate these systems in support of grid balancing. However, this flexibility is currently not rewarded in the market. We simulate a domestic water heater participating in the balancing of the electricity net and calculated the revenue from this action. We simulate a water heater in connection with an Economic Model Predictive Controller (EMPC) which takes future usage, energy cost, and reward for delivering balanced power into account. We show that the choice of an EMPC controller is valid as it allows the setpoint to change if certain conditions are met, leading to a more optimal revenue stream from selling flexibility. We find that the economic benefits of participating in delivering balancing power is considerable and offset an increase in energy costs. The increase in energy consumption could be justified as the participation in net stabilisation allows the macro-system to integrate more renewable energy sources. More importantly, the simulations also show that the poorer the energy performance of the water heater, the more flexibility can be sold. From a policy point of view, a minimal energy performance should be determined before allowing participation in net stabilisation.

Abstract: This study investigated the effects of using a standardized PowerPoint lecture to provide young people with nuanced information about bioenergy. The studys aim was to understand the relationship between knowledge and participants perception of bioenergy, and the relationship of the latter to participants attitude strength and intention to use and learn about bioenergy. Data were collected from 715 participants using a survey instrument that contained mainly Likert-scale questions. Data were then processed using partial least squares structural equation modelling. Results show that providing such information increases knowledge about bioenergy, but does relatively little to create a more positive perception of bioenergy. In turn, having a more positive view about bioenergy would lead to a higher intention to use bioenergy. Attitude strength was found to mediate the previous relationship and decreases the strength of the relationship between perception and intention to use. Results also show that the lecture weakly contributed to building attitude strength, rendering opinion change less likely in the future. We conclude that listening to a lecture on bioenergy slightly improves peoples perception of bioenergy, makes it more likely that people maintain such a disposition, and translates into a slightly higher intention to use bioenergy.

Abstract: Non-renewable resources include a large variety of deposits that have been formed by geological processes over millions of years. Although extraction of such resources provides benefits as employment and economic revenues, it also contributes to negative environmental externalities and it increases resource scarcity. An important policy question is how to optimally extract non-renewable resource stocks over time while taking possible substitutes and recycling into account. The present paper adds to the literature by developing a generic numerical optimisation model that can be used to simulate non-renewable resource management regimes and the effects of different policy instruments deployed at different stages of the resource's life cycle. By including recycling and substitution, the model extends the seminal cake-eating Hotelling model that dominates the non-renewable resource economics literature. In addition to being generically designed, the model can accommodate for non-competitive market settings, interacting policy instruments and environmental externalities at different stages of the material's life cycle. The model's possibilities are illustrated by means of a numerical simulation example for the extraction of sand.

Abstract: Waste treatment taxation is a popular policy instrument in many European countries and regions. Its impact on household waste has extensively been researched. However, only little research exists which looks into the impact of waste treatment taxation on industrial waste generation. Nevertheless, industrial waste constitutes more than ninety percent of waste generated in the European Union. This study assesses the impact of an incineration tax on the generation of industrial plastic waste in Flanders, Belgium. We conduct different types of econometrical panel analyzes and provide statistical evidence that firms show lagged behavior, which means that the previous year’s waste generation partly determines the current year’s. The dynamic panel estimations show robust results, indicating that a growth of incineration taxes exert significant negative effects on the growth of industrial plastic waste generation. This result offers no argument to iteratively raise incineration taxes. We conclude that incineration taxation is meaningful if tax rates are set according to the prevailing market conditions, i.e. taking into account the marginal costs of alternatives for incineration. In the short run, the effectiveness of taxation will quickly diminish due to the rapidly rising marginal costs of waste reduction. In the long run, extra recycling capacity is needed to recycle the minimized waste fraction. The role of taxation in the long run is to maintain an equilibrium in which recycling is preferred by the market.

Abstract: The approaching end-of life phase of early installed PV modules gave rise to a variety of potential end-of-life strategies, ranging from basic generic waste management strategies to advanced case-specific recycling options. However, no comprehensive assessment on the full range of technological possibilities is available and only limited attention was given to the material recovery rates of these different technologies in light of circular economy. In addition, current material recovery rates are indifferent towards the material value and the value of their secondary applications. Based on an extensive literature review, ten end-of-life scenarios with potential learning effects are identified and their material flows are quantified using a combined material and substance flow analysis. Subsequently, material recovery rates from a mass, economic value and embodied energy perspective are calculated, incorporating the differences in secondary applications. The differences in the mass-based recovery rates of the seven end-of-life scenarios that did not have landfill or municipal waste incineration as the main destination were minimal, as 73-79% of the mass was recovered for the best-case learning scenario. For the economic value recovery rate (9-66%) and the embodied energy recovery rate (18-45%), more profound differences were found. The collection rate was identified as most crucial parameter for all end-of-life scenarios, learning scenarios and recycling indicators. The mass-based recovery rate might favor end-of-life scenarios that lead to dissipation of valuable materials in non-functional secondary applications. Additional targets are required to avoid cascading of valuable materials and to avoid the economic cost and environmental burden of virgin materials.

Abstract: Algal-based bioenergy products have faced multiple economic and environmental problems. To counter these problems, algal-based biorefineries have been proposed as a promising solution. Multiple environmental and economic assessments have analyzed this concept. However, a wide variation in results was reported. This study performs a review to evaluate the methodological reasons behind this variation. Based on this review, four main challenges for a sustainability assessment were identified: 1) the use of a clear framework; 2) the adaptation of the methodology to all stages of technological maturity; 3) the use of harmonized assumptions; 4) the integration of the technological process. A generic methodology, based on the integration of a techno-economic assessment methodology and a streamlined life cycle assessment was proposed. This environmental techno-economic assessment can be performed following an iterative approach during each stage of technology development. In this way, crucial technological parameters can be directly identified and evaluated during the maturation of the technology. The use of this assessment methodology can therefore act as guidance to decrease the time-to-market for innovative and sustainable technologies.

Abstract: The majority of impact assessments for the biobased economy are primarily focused on the environmental and (techno-)economic aspects, while social aspects are rarely considered. This study proposes a modified systemic approach for a social sustainability impact assessment of the biobased economy, based on a review on the common methodologies for assessing social impacts. Accordingly, the proposed approach follows the four general iterative steps of social life cycle analysis (SLCA) as it considers all life cycle phases of the biobased economy. The systemic approach considers the potential social impacts on local communities, workers, and consumers as the main three groups of the stakeholders. The review showed that the most common social indicators for inventory analysis within the biobased economy include health and safety, food security, income, employment, land- and worker-related concerns, energy security, profitability, and gender issues. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was also highlighted as the broadly utilized methodology for aggregating the results of impact assessments within the biobased economy. Taking a life cycle perspective, this study provides a holistic view of the full sustainability of research, design, and innovation in the biobased economy by suggesting the integration of the social aspects with techno-economic and an environmental life cycle assessment. Our proposed systemic approach makes possible to integrate the social impacts that are highly valued by the affected stakeholders into the existing sustainability models that focus only on environmental and techno-economic aspects. We discuss the steps of the proposed systemic approach in order to identify the challenges of applying them within the biobased economy. These challenges refer mainly to the definition of the functional unit and system boundaries, the selection and the analysis of social indicators (inventory analysis), the aggregation of the inventory to impact categories, and the uncertainties associated with the social sustainability evaluation. The result of this review and the proposed systemic approach serve as a foundation for industry and policy makers to gain a better insight into the importance of social sustainability impacts assessment within the biobased economy.