Abstract: We consider two possible mechanisms for single-vortex fluctuative entry/exit through the surface barrier in ultrathin superconducting disk-shaped nanoislands made of Pb and consisting of just a few monoatomic layers, which can be fabricated using modern techniques. We estimate tunneling probabilities and establish criteria for the crossover between these two mechanisms depending on magnetic field and system sizes. For the case of vortex entry, quantum tunneling dominates on the major part of the temperature/flux phase diagram. For the case of vortex exit, thermal activation turns out to be more probable. This nontrivial result is due to the subtle balance between the barrier height and width, which determine rates of the thermal activation and quantum tunneling, respectively.