Abstract: We developed a microkinetic model to reveal the effects of plasma-generated radicals, intermediates, and vibrationally excited species on the catalytic hydrogenation of CO2 to CH3OH on a Cu(111) surface. As a benchmark, we first present the mechanisms of thermal catalytic CH3OH formation. Our model predicts that the reverse water-gas shift reaction followed by CO hydrogenation, together with the formate path, mainly contribute to CH3OH formation in thermal catalysis. Adding plasma-generated radicals and intermediates results in a higher CH3OH turnover frequency (TOF) by six to seven orders of magnitude, showing the potential of plasma-catalytic CO2 hydrogenation into CH3OH, in accordance with the literature. In addition, CO2 vibrational excitation further increases the CH3OH TOF, but the effect is limited due to relatively low vibrational temperatures under typical plasma catalysis conditions. The predicted increase in CH3OH formation by plasma catalysis is mainly attributed to the increased importance of the formate path. In addition, the conversion of plasma-generated CO to HCO* and subsequent HCOO* or H2CO* formation contribute to CH3OH formation. Both pathways bypass the HCOO* formation from CO2, which is the main bottleneck in the process. Hence, our model points toward the important role of CO, but also O, OH, and H radicals, as they influence the reactions that consume CO2 and CO. In addition, our model reveals that the H pressure should not be smaller than ca. half of the O pressure in the plasma as this would cause O* poisoning, which would result in very small product TOFs. Thus, plasma conditions should be targeted with a high CO and H content as this is favorable for CH3OH formation, while the O content should be minimized.