Abstract: The value of phytoextracting crops (plants cultivated for soil remediation) depends on the profitability of the sequential investment in a conversion technology aimed at the economic valorization of the plants. However, the net present value (NPV) of an investment in such an innovative technology is risky due to technical and economic uncertainties. Therefore, decision makers want to dispose of information about the probability of a positive NPV, the largest possible loss, and the crucial economic and technical parameters influencing the NPV. This paper maps the total uncertainty in the NPV of an investment in fast pyrolysis for the production of combined heat and power from willow cultivated for phytoextraction in the Belgian Campine. The probability of a positive NPV has been calculated by performing Monte Carlo simulations. Information about possible losses has been provided by means of experimental design. Both methods are then combined in order to identify the key economic and technical parameters influencing the project's profitability. It appears that the case study has a chance of 87% of generating a positive NPV with an expected value of 3 million euro (MEUR), while worst-case scenarios predict possible losses of 7 MEUR. The amount of arable land, the biomass yield, the purchase price of the crop, the policy support, and the product yield of fast pyrolysis are identified as the most influential parameters. It is concluded that both methods, i.e., Monte Carlo simulations and experimental design, provide decision makers with complementary information with regard to economic risk.

Abstract: In the light of global warming, this paper develops a framework to compare energy and transportation technologies in terms of cost-efficient GHG emission reduction. We conduct a simultaneous assessment of economic and environmental performances through life cycle costing and life cycle assessment. To calculate the GHG mitigation cost, we create reference systems within the base scenario. Further, we extend the concept of the mitigation cost, allowing (i) comparision of technologies given a limited investment resource, and (ii) evaluation of the direct impact of policy measures by means of the subsidized mitigation cost. The framework is illustrated with a case of solar photovoltaics (PV), grid powered battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and solar powered BEVs for a Belgian small and medium sized enterprise. The study's conclusions are that the mitigation cost of solar PV is high, even though this is a mature technology. The emerging mass produced BEVs on the other hand are found to have a large potential for cost-efficient GHG mitigation as indicated by their low cost of mitigation. Finally, based on the subsidized mitigation cost, we conclude that the current financial stimuli for all three investigated technologies are excessive when compared to the CO2 market value under the EU Emission Trading Scheme.