Abstract: Novel emerging biorefinery technologies have gained interest and have the potential to tackle several sustainability challenges in our society. A lignin-first biorefinery process – reductive catalytic fractionation (RCF) – is currently under development with the aim to process wood into high-value end-products that replace highly polluting fossil oil-based products. However, such emerging technologies are not matured yet, holding a certain degree of technological, economic, and environmental uncertainty. Hence, an appropriate assessment method is required to assess techno-economic feasibility and environmental impacts of emerging uncertain technologies (e.g lignin-first RCF process). This dissertation aims to develop an integrated techno-environmental economic assessment framework to assess emerging technologies dynamically and prospectively from economic and environmental points of view. First, a techno-economic assessment (TEA) is performed to assess the economic feasibility and the most influential economic and technological parameters of the lignin-first RCF biorefinery taking the whole wood value chain into account. By making the relations across the wood value chain, the scale of the biorefinery, wood species, and output prices highly determine the economic feasibility. The economic feasibility can be reached by a sufficient capacity level which depends on wood species-specific conditions. Also, waste wood proves to be the most profitable feedstock in comparison to virgin wood. Second, an analytical real options analysis (ROA) is performed taking two correlated market uncertainties and the value of flexibility into account to identify the optimal investment decision in an RCF biorefinery. Two different investment options, separated and united investments in harvesting equipment and RCF biorefinery, are analyzed. In both scenarios, market uncertainty postpones the investment. When both investment decisions are united, the probability of investment increases in comparison to separated investments. The study reveals that RCF has the potential to stimulate investments within the wood value chain. Third, a consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) is performed to assess the carbon emissions and the environmental consequences of the lignin-first RCF process and its products. The study reveals that at the current stage RCF products have higher carbon emissions than their alternative counterparts. Several options to improve the environmental performance are discussed such as different RCF technology configurations, targeting different RCF products with the ability to replace higher polluting alternative counterparts on the markets. Other discussion points such as transportation type and the distance, (in-)direct land-use change, the use stage and disposal stages implications, and a more comprehensive environmental view of the RCF products, show the potential to improve the environmental performance of the RCF technology. Overall, the study shows that the RCF process can be environmentally desirable if the appropriate RCF configuration and products are chosen. Finally, the above-mentioned methods – techno-economic assessment, analytical real options analysis, and consequential life cycle assessment – are uniquely integrated within the newly developed integrated assessment framework. The framework has the aim to complement the shortcomings and combine the advantages of all three methods. The framework assesses emerging technologies to give predictive insights about the time-specific economic and environmental performance under the newly developed three threshold conditions: technological readiness, economic feasibility, and environmental desirability. The developed integrated assessment framework assesses dynamically and prospectively the RCF biorefinery implementation under Belgian conditions. It reveals that the economic feasibility increases and carbon emissions decrease over time. The RCF biorefinery fulfills all three threshold conditions – technological readiness, economic feasibility, and environmental desirability – consecutively. The newly developed integrated assessment framework offers decision support to several stakeholders of emerging technologies starting from low technology readiness level (TRL). Practitioners such as the technology developers, researchers, and policymakers can use the framework to evaluate emerging technologies that deal with high levels of technological, economic, and environmental uncertainties. The framework assesses emerging technologies on a detailed level to give decision-makers in-depth insights into the intertwined nature of the technological, economic, and environmental dimensions. It offers insights into the expected time-specific economic and environmental performances, potential, and challenges of the emerging technology to further improve the technology and direct R&Ds along the right path.

Abstract: A new lignin-first biorefinery with a reductive catalytic fractionation process, which targets the valorization of the lignin and the carbohydrate fraction into higher value end-products, is currently being designed. To identify the various R&D drivers for projects with a low technology readiness level (TRL), we developed an integrated techno-economic assessment (TEA) that directly integrates the results of lab studies with economic costs and benefits. Furthermore, different linkages are made to upstream wood availability and downstream demand to understand its fit into existing wood value chains. By making the relations across the wood value chain explicit within the integrated TEA, we find that the scale of the plant, the feedstock-specific output quantities, and output prices highly determine the economic feasibility. Furthermore, this detailed analysis reveals the importance of assessing different types of feedstock. If only virgin wood is available as feedstock, minimum capacity levels between 190 and 234 kilotons per year are needed for the investment to be profitable. Waste wood proves to be the most profitable feedstock with an NPV of M€ 59 and an IRR of 26%. Using only waste wood as feedstock makes the investment profitable at a lower capacity level of 80 kilotons per year and economic shocks can be absorbed. Based on these results we show that an integrated and detailed TEA is indispensable to define future development paths for early-stage, innovative technologies.