Abstract: Novel recycling technologies aim at increasing material efficiency by turning former waste products into valuable reclaimed resources. A key question is whether such technologies really reduce primary resource consumption or instead stimulate aggregated market demand. In this study the consequences of a positive shock in ferrochrome supply to the global stainless steel value chain is assessed quantitatively. This new source might be unlocked by technology under development for the recovery of chromium from carbon and stainless steel slags. The aim of this study is to quantitatively assess the income and substitution effects of reclaimed ferrochrome along a part of the stainless steel value chain. The impact of the supply shock is analysed by means of a vector autoregression (VAR), a dynamic model where lagged values of all included variables estimate current state of the system. Additionally, the VAR model is extended to a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) to account for contemporary effects as well. Both the VAR and SVAR model indicate that additional ferrochrome supply leads to an increase in aggregated supply of stainless steel, in combination with a substitution effect between ferrochrome and nickel. The extended SVAR model additionally highlights that contemporaneous effects do play an important role as well to capture the direct rebound effect in the ferrochrome market when working with quarterly data. In other words, an additional supply of reclaimed ferrochrome triggers a complex combination of interactions and consequences, yet it does not necessarily lead to a lower overall material consumption. The main contributions of this paper are the assessment of direct rebound effects of supplying reclaimed metals along the value chain and the demonstration that quantifying the effects of circular strategies is feasible.

Abstract: Livestock production is utilizing large amounts of protein-rich feed ingredients such as soybean meal. The proven negative environmental impacts of soybean meal production incentivize the search for alternative protein sources. One promising alternative is Microbial Protein (MP), i.e. dried microbial biomass. To date, only few life cycle assessments (LCAs) for MP have been carried out, none of which has used a consequential modelling approach nor has been investigating the production of MP on food and beverage wastewater. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate the environmental impact of MP production on a food and beverage effluent as a substitute for soybean meal using a consequential modelling approach. Three different types of MP production were analysed, namely consortia containing Aerobic Heterotrophic Bacteria (AHB), Microalgae and AHB (MaB), and Purple Non-Sulfur Bacteria (PNSB). The production of MP was modelled for high-strength potato wastewater (COD = 10 kg/m3) at a flow rate of 1,000 m3/day. LCA results were compared against soybean meal production for the endpoint impact categories human health, ecosystems, and resources. Soybean meal showed up to 52% higher impact on human health and up to 87% higher impact on ecosystems than MP. However, energy-related aspects resulted in an 8–88% higher resource exploitation for MP. A comparison between the MP production systems showed that MaB performed best when considering ecosystems (between 13 and 14% better) and resource (between 71 and 80% better) impact categories, while AHB and PNSB had lower values for the impact category human health (8–12%). The sensitivity analysis suggests that the conclusions drawn are robust as in the majority of 1,000 Monte Carlo runs the initial results are confirmed. In conclusion, it is suggested that MP is an alternative protein source of comparatively low environmental impact that should play a role in the future protein transition, in particular when further process improvements can be implemented and more renewable or waste energy sources will be used.