Abstract: Novel recycling technologies aim at increasing material efficiency by turning former waste products into valuable reclaimed resources. A key question is whether such technologies really reduce primary resource consumption or instead stimulate aggregated market demand. In this study the consequences of a positive shock in ferrochrome supply to the global stainless steel value chain is assessed quantitatively. This new source might be unlocked by technology under development for the recovery of chromium from carbon and stainless steel slags. The aim of this study is to quantitatively assess the income and substitution effects of reclaimed ferrochrome along a part of the stainless steel value chain. The impact of the supply shock is analysed by means of a vector autoregression (VAR), a dynamic model where lagged values of all included variables estimate current state of the system. Additionally, the VAR model is extended to a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) to account for contemporary effects as well. Both the VAR and SVAR model indicate that additional ferrochrome supply leads to an increase in aggregated supply of stainless steel, in combination with a substitution effect between ferrochrome and nickel. The extended SVAR model additionally highlights that contemporaneous effects do play an important role as well to capture the direct rebound effect in the ferrochrome market when working with quarterly data. In other words, an additional supply of reclaimed ferrochrome triggers a complex combination of interactions and consequences, yet it does not necessarily lead to a lower overall material consumption. The main contributions of this paper are the assessment of direct rebound effects of supplying reclaimed metals along the value chain and the demonstration that quantifying the effects of circular strategies is feasible.

Abstract: The valuable properties of carbon steel slag are currently underexploited. To date, research mainly focusses on valorising a single property of the slag. In this study an ex-ante life cycle assessment (LCA) was applied to evaluate the environmental profile of a novel technological pathway aimed at the extraction of chromium from carbon steel slag in combination with high quality valorisation of the residual matrix material. A comparison with current practice was made, not only by calculating the environmental impact of the lab scale observations, but more importantly by estimating the impact on an industrial scale. Practical guidance on ex-ante LCA is limited, so this study contributes by incorporating simulations on thermodynamic behaviour, complemented with empirical calculation rules and including information derived from similar technologies to perform the upscaling. These principles of ex-ante LCA were applied to the lab results of two consecutive research iterations. Substantial improvements of the environmental profile were observed: ex-ante results turned out to be a factor 20 lower compared to the results from the lab observations after the first iteration and had decreased by a factor 2 compared to the small pilot scale of the second iteration. All upscaled results are better than those from the worst case reference scenario (landfill). Based on the experience gained after this iterative research cycle, a practical recommendation is that at a low technology readiness level using more simple calculation rules in combination with a flowsheet based on elementary design principles for processes at an industrial scale is a more efficient way of modelling compared to a fully-fledged process design from the start.