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Author |
Kuppens, T.; Rafiaani, P.; Vanreppelen, K.; Yperman, J.; Carleer, R.; Schreurs, S.; Thewys, T.; Van Passel, S. |
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Title |
Combining Monte Carlo simulations and experimental design for incorporating risk and uncertainty in investment decisions for cleantech : a fast pyrolysis case study |
Type |
A1 Journal article |
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Year  |
2018 |
Publication |
Clean Technologies And Environmental Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clean Technol Envir |
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Volume |
20 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages |
1195-1206 |
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Keywords |
A1 Journal article; Engineering sciences. Technology; Engineering Management (ENM) |
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Abstract |
The value of phytoextracting crops (plants cultivated for soil remediation) depends on the profitability of the sequential investment in a conversion technology aimed at the economic valorization of the plants. However, the net present value (NPV) of an investment in such an innovative technology is risky due to technical and economic uncertainties. Therefore, decision makers want to dispose of information about the probability of a positive NPV, the largest possible loss, and the crucial economic and technical parameters influencing the NPV. This paper maps the total uncertainty in the NPV of an investment in fast pyrolysis for the production of combined heat and power from willow cultivated for phytoextraction in the Belgian Campine. The probability of a positive NPV has been calculated by performing Monte Carlo simulations. Information about possible losses has been provided by means of experimental design. Both methods are then combined in order to identify the key economic and technical parameters influencing the project's profitability. It appears that the case study has a chance of 87% of generating a positive NPV with an expected value of 3 million euro (MEUR), while worst-case scenarios predict possible losses of 7 MEUR. The amount of arable land, the biomass yield, the purchase price of the crop, the policy support, and the product yield of fast pyrolysis are identified as the most influential parameters. It is concluded that both methods, i.e., Monte Carlo simulations and experimental design, provide decision makers with complementary information with regard to economic risk. |
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Wos |
000439453500007 |
Publication Date |
2018-05-25 |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1618-954x |
ISBN |
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Additional Links |
UA library record; WoS full record; WoS citing articles; WoS full record; WoS citing articles |
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Impact Factor |
3.331 |
Times cited |
5 |
Open Access |
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Notes |
; ; |
Approved |
Most recent IF: 3.331 |
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Call Number |
UA @ admin @ c:irua:152385 |
Serial |
6169 |
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Author |
Kuppens, T.; Van Dael, M.; Vanreppelen, K.; Thewys, T.; Yperman, J.; Carleer, R.; Schreurs, S.; Van Passel, S. |
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Title |
Techno-economic assessment of fast pyrolysis for the valorization of short rotation coppice cultivated for phytoextraction |
Type |
A1 Journal article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal Of Cleaner Production |
Abbreviated Journal |
J Clean Prod |
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Volume |
88 |
Issue |
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Pages |
336-344 |
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Keywords |
A1 Journal article; Engineering Management (ENM) |
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Abstract |
The main barrier in the commercialization of phytoextraction as a sustainable alternative for remediating metal contaminated soils is its long time period, which can be countered by biomass valorization. From an environmental point of view, fast pyrolysis of the biomass is promising because its lower process temperature prevents metal volatilization. The remaining question is whether fast pyrolysis is also preferred from an economic point of view. Therefore, a techno-economic assessment of fast pyrolysis has been performed for a case study in the Campine region in Belgium. For this region, willow trees cultivated in short rotation have the right characteristics to serve as a phytoextracting crop. A techno-economic assessment requires by definition a multidisciplinary approach. The problem statement urges for a focus on the economic profitability from the viewpoint of an investor, including economic risk analysis. Fast pyrolysis seems more profitable than gasification. The profit is dependent on the scale of operation, the policy support (subsidies) and the oil yield. The economic risk can be reduced by increasing the scale of operation by means of complementing feedstocks, and by valorization of the char byproduct by subsequent processing to activated carbon. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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Wos |
000347771100036 |
Publication Date |
2014-07-19 |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0959-6526 |
ISBN |
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Additional Links |
UA library record; WoS full record; WoS citing articles |
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Impact Factor |
5.715 |
Times cited |
36 |
Open Access |
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Notes |
; ; |
Approved |
Most recent IF: 5.715; 2015 IF: 3.844 |
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Call Number |
UA @ admin @ c:irua:127539 |
Serial |
6264 |
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Author |
Compernolle, T.; Van Passel, S.; Weyens, N.; Vangronsveld, J.; Lebbe, L.; Thewys, T. |
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Title |
Groundwater remediation and the cost effectiveness of phytoremediation |
Type |
A1 Journal article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
International Journal Of Phytoremediation |
Abbreviated Journal |
Int J Phytoremediat |
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Volume |
14 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
861-877 |
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Keywords |
A1 Journal article; Economics; Engineering Management (ENM) |
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Abstract |
In 1999, phytoremediation was applied at the site of a Belgian car factory to contain two BTEX plumes. This case study evaluates the cost effectiveness of phytoremediation compared to other remediation options, applying a tailored approach for economic evaluation. Generally, when phytoremediation is addressed as being cost effective, the cost effectiveness is only determined on an average basis. This study however, demonstrates that an incremental analysis may provide a more nuanced conclusion. When the cost effectiveness is calculated on an average basis, in this particular case, the no containment strategy (natural attenuation) has the lowest cost per unit mass removed and hence, should be preferred. However, when the cost effectiveness is determined incrementally, no containment should only be preferred if the value of removing an extra gram of contaminant mass is lower than 320. Otherwise, a permeable reactive barrier should be adopted. A similar analysis is provided for the effect determined on the basis of remediation time. Phytoremediation is preferred compared to no containment if reaching the objective one year earlier is worth 7 000. |
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Wos |
000304914700004 |
Publication Date |
2012-06-07 |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1522-6514 |
ISBN |
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Additional Links |
UA library record; WoS full record; WoS citing articles |
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Impact Factor |
1.77 |
Times cited |
12 |
Open Access |
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Notes |
; ; |
Approved |
Most recent IF: 1.77; 2012 IF: 1.179 |
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Call Number |
UA @ admin @ c:irua:129862 |
Serial |
6206 |
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Author |
De Schepper, E.; Van Passel, S.; Manca, J.; Thewys, T. |
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Title |
Combining photovoltaics and sound barriers : a feasibility study |
Type |
A1 Journal article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Renewable Energy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Renew Energ |
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Volume |
46 |
Issue |
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Pages |
297-303 |
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Keywords |
A1 Journal article; Engineering sciences. Technology; Engineering Management (ENM) |
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Abstract |
In the light of global warming, renewables such as solar photovoltaics (PV) are important to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. An important issue regarding implementation of solar panels on large scale, is the limited available area. Therefore, it can be interesting to combine PV with alternative applications, as a ways of not requiring “additional” space. One example is a photovoltaic noise barrier (PVNB), where a noise barrier located along a highway or railway is used as substructure for PV modules. Even though a PVNB is not a novel concept, the absence of economic assessments in literature can be a barrier to their wider implementation. In this paper, a feasibility study of a PVNB in Belgium is conducted, using a cost benefit analysis including a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. Besides purely economic aspects, also ecological benefits are monetized. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the ecological benefit of noise reduction, which is valuated using a noise sensitivity depreciation index applied to real estate prices, is of major importance in determining the net present value of the case study. On the contrary, the impact of reducing CO2 emissions seems to be negligible when expressed in monetary terms. The results suggest that the PVNB as a whole and also its separate components -.e. the PV array and the noise barrier can be profitable projects, when ecological benefits are included. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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Wos |
000305169400036 |
Publication Date |
2012-04-06 |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0960-1481 |
ISBN |
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Additional Links |
UA library record; WoS full record; WoS citing articles |
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Impact Factor |
4.357 |
Times cited |
12 |
Open Access |
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Notes |
; ; |
Approved |
Most recent IF: 4.357; 2012 IF: 2.989 |
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Call Number |
UA @ admin @ c:irua:127555 |
Serial |
6170 |
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Author |
Compernolle, T.; Witters, N.; Van Passel, S.; Thewys, T. |
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Title |
Analyzing a self-managed CHP system for greenhouse cultivation as a profitable way to reduce CO2-emissions |
Type |
A1 Journal article |
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Year |
2011 |
Publication |
Energy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Energy |
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Volume |
36 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
1940-1947 |
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Keywords |
A1 Journal article; Engineering sciences. Technology |
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Abstract |
To counter global warming, a transition to a low-carbon economy is needed. The greenhouse sector can contribute by installing Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems, known for their excellent energy efficiency. Due to the recent European liberalization of the energy market, glass horticulturists have the opportunity to sell excess electricity to the market and by tailored policy and support measures, regional governments can fill the lack of technical and economic knowledge, causing initial resistance. This research investigates the economic and environmental opportunities using two detailed cases applying a self managed cogeneration system. The Net Present Value is calculated to investigate the economic feasibility. The Primary Energy Saving, the CO2 Emission Reduction indicator and an Emission Balance are applied to quantify the environmental impact. The results demonstrate that a self-managed CHP system is economic viable and that CO2 emissions are reduced. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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Wos |
000289605900014 |
Publication Date |
2010-04-03 |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0360-5442 |
ISBN |
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Additional Links |
UA library record; WoS full record; WoS citing articles |
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Impact Factor |
4.52 |
Times cited |
19 |
Open Access |
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Notes |
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Approved |
Most recent IF: 4.52; 2011 IF: 3.487 |
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Call Number |
UA @ admin @ c:irua:127561 |
Serial |
6152 |
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Author |
Compernolle, T.; Van Passel, S.; Lebbe, L.; Vangronsveld, J.; Thewys, T. |
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Title |
Populieren en hun bacteriën : een sanering hoeft niet altijd duur en ingrijpend te zijn |
Type |
A3 Journal article |
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Year |
2010 |
Publication |
Nieuwsbrief milieu & economie |
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Volume |
24 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
15-17 |
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Keywords |
A3 Journal article; Economics |
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Additional Links |
UA library record |
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Impact Factor |
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Times cited |
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Open Access |
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Notes |
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Approved |
Most recent IF: NA |
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Call Number |
UA @ admin @ c:irua:140852 |
Serial |
6237 |
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