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Author |
Kuppens, T.; Rafiaani, P.; Vanreppelen, K.; Yperman, J.; Carleer, R.; Schreurs, S.; Thewys, T.; Van Passel, S. |
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Title |
Combining Monte Carlo simulations and experimental design for incorporating risk and uncertainty in investment decisions for cleantech : a fast pyrolysis case study |
Type |
A1 Journal article |
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Year  |
2018 |
Publication |
Clean Technologies And Environmental Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clean Technol Envir |
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Volume |
20 |
Issue |
6 |
Pages |
1195-1206 |
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Keywords |
A1 Journal article; Engineering sciences. Technology; Engineering Management (ENM) |
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Abstract |
The value of phytoextracting crops (plants cultivated for soil remediation) depends on the profitability of the sequential investment in a conversion technology aimed at the economic valorization of the plants. However, the net present value (NPV) of an investment in such an innovative technology is risky due to technical and economic uncertainties. Therefore, decision makers want to dispose of information about the probability of a positive NPV, the largest possible loss, and the crucial economic and technical parameters influencing the NPV. This paper maps the total uncertainty in the NPV of an investment in fast pyrolysis for the production of combined heat and power from willow cultivated for phytoextraction in the Belgian Campine. The probability of a positive NPV has been calculated by performing Monte Carlo simulations. Information about possible losses has been provided by means of experimental design. Both methods are then combined in order to identify the key economic and technical parameters influencing the project's profitability. It appears that the case study has a chance of 87% of generating a positive NPV with an expected value of 3 million euro (MEUR), while worst-case scenarios predict possible losses of 7 MEUR. The amount of arable land, the biomass yield, the purchase price of the crop, the policy support, and the product yield of fast pyrolysis are identified as the most influential parameters. It is concluded that both methods, i.e., Monte Carlo simulations and experimental design, provide decision makers with complementary information with regard to economic risk. |
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Wos |
000439453500007 |
Publication Date |
2018-05-25 |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1618-954x |
ISBN |
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Additional Links |
UA library record; WoS full record; WoS citing articles; WoS full record; WoS citing articles |
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Impact Factor |
3.331 |
Times cited |
5 |
Open Access |
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Notes |
; ; |
Approved |
Most recent IF: 3.331 |
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Call Number |
UA @ admin @ c:irua:152385 |
Serial |
6169 |
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Author |
Kuppens, T.; Van Dael, M.; Vanreppelen, K.; Thewys, T.; Yperman, J.; Carleer, R.; Schreurs, S.; Van Passel, S. |
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Title |
Techno-economic assessment of fast pyrolysis for the valorization of short rotation coppice cultivated for phytoextraction |
Type |
A1 Journal article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal Of Cleaner Production |
Abbreviated Journal |
J Clean Prod |
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Volume |
88 |
Issue |
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Pages |
336-344 |
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Keywords |
A1 Journal article; Engineering Management (ENM) |
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Abstract |
The main barrier in the commercialization of phytoextraction as a sustainable alternative for remediating metal contaminated soils is its long time period, which can be countered by biomass valorization. From an environmental point of view, fast pyrolysis of the biomass is promising because its lower process temperature prevents metal volatilization. The remaining question is whether fast pyrolysis is also preferred from an economic point of view. Therefore, a techno-economic assessment of fast pyrolysis has been performed for a case study in the Campine region in Belgium. For this region, willow trees cultivated in short rotation have the right characteristics to serve as a phytoextracting crop. A techno-economic assessment requires by definition a multidisciplinary approach. The problem statement urges for a focus on the economic profitability from the viewpoint of an investor, including economic risk analysis. Fast pyrolysis seems more profitable than gasification. The profit is dependent on the scale of operation, the policy support (subsidies) and the oil yield. The economic risk can be reduced by increasing the scale of operation by means of complementing feedstocks, and by valorization of the char byproduct by subsequent processing to activated carbon. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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000347771100036 |
Publication Date |
2014-07-19 |
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ISSN |
0959-6526 |
ISBN |
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Additional Links |
UA library record; WoS full record; WoS citing articles |
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Impact Factor |
5.715 |
Times cited |
36 |
Open Access |
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Notes |
; ; |
Approved |
Most recent IF: 5.715; 2015 IF: 3.844 |
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Call Number |
UA @ admin @ c:irua:127539 |
Serial |
6264 |
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Author |
Kuppens, T.; Van Dael, M.; Vanreppelen, K.; Carleer, R.; Yperman, J.; Schreurs, S.; Van Passel, S. |
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Title |
Techno-economic assessment of pyrolysis char production and application : a review |
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P1 Proceeding |
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Year |
2014 |
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67-72 |
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Keywords |
P1 Proceeding; Engineering sciences. Technology |
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Many organic residue streams such as pig manure are not or inefficiently used, although they can be converted into valuable materials, as well as energy, using pyrolysis. The yield of the pyrolysis products (i.e. oil, gas and char) is dependent on the process conditions and the feedstock used. Char as a soil amendment or activated carbon are interesting options for valorization of biomass residues. Here, a review is presented of the techno-economic potential of both valorization options based on literature and own experiments with wood from phytoremediation, particle board and waste from beer production. The term “biochar” is specifically used to designate pyrolysis char that is intentionally applied to soil in order to enhance its structure and fertility. Biochar applications are often also motivated by the objective of climate change mitigation. Two main disadvantages for the economic feasibility of biochar applications have been discerned. Firstly, carbon sequestration in agricultural crops and soils is not yet eligible under the Clean Development Mechanism. Secondly, the impact of biochar on crop productivity is unclear. Activated carbon (AC) seems to have interesting adsorption characteristics resulting in potentially high sales prices. A preliminary techno-economic assessment showed that AC production is preferred above oil production for wood from phytoremediation as long as the market price of 2 kEUR.t(-1) for commercially available ACs can be attained. Whenever a feedstock with high nitrogen content is available (e.g. particle board with melamine urea formaldehyde resin), even higher market prices might be attained. This study shows that valorization of the pyrolysis char might be an answer to the slow adoption of pyrolysis in commercial applications. Focus in research and development, for instance in future research with regard to pig manure valorization, should therefore be on sustainable products with high economic value and direct utilization potential. |
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Wos |
000346540000012 |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
International Conference on BioMass (iconBM 2014), 4-7 May 2014, Florence, Italy / Ranzi, Eliseo [edit.]; et al. |
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Series Volume |
37 |
Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
978-88-95608-28-0 |
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Additional Links |
UA library record; WoS full record; WoS citing articles |
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Impact Factor |
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Times cited |
8 |
Open Access |
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Notes |
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Approved |
Most recent IF: NA |
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Call Number |
UA @ admin @ c:irua:127547 |
Serial |
6265 |
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